Assessment of seasonal variations in particulate matter accumulation and elemental composition in urban tree species.

Outdoor air pollution in urban areas, especially particulate matter (PM), is harmful to human health. Urban trees and shrubs provide crucial ecosystem services such as air pollution mitigation by acting as natural filters. However, urban greenery comprises a particular biodiversity, and different plant species vary in their capacity to accumulate PM. Twenty-two plant species were analyzed and selected according to their leaf traits, the different fractions of PM accumulated on the leaves (large - PML, coarse - PMC, and fine - PMF) and their chemical composition. The study was conducted in four city zones: urban traffic (UT), urban background (UB), industrial (IND), and rural (RUR), comparing winter (W) and summer (S) seasons. The average PM levels in the air and accumulated on the leaves were higher in W than in S season. During both seasons, the highest PM accumulated on the leaves was recorded at the UT zone. Nine species were selected as the most suitable for accumulating PML, seven as the most efficient for accumulating PMC, and six for accumulating PMF. The leaf area and leaf roundness were correlated negatively with PM accumulation. The evergreen species L. nobilis was indicated as suitable for dealing with air pollution based on PM10 and PM2.5 values recorded in the air. Regarding the PM element and metal composition, L. nobilis, Photinia x fraseri, Olea europaea, Quercus ilex and Nerium oleander were selected as species with notable elements and metal accumulation. In summary, the study identified species with higher PM accumulation capacity and assessed the seasonal PM accumulation patterns in different city zones, providing insights into the species interactions with PM and their potential for monitoring and coping with air pollution.

Quercus ilex L. dieback is genetically determined: Evidence provided by dendrochronology, δ13C and SSR genotyping.

Quercus ilex L. dieback has been reported in several Mediterranean forests, revealing different degree of crown damages even in close sites, as observed in two Q. ilex forest stands in southern Tuscany (IT). In this work, we applied a novel approach combining dendrochronological, tree-ring δ13C and genetic analysis to test the hypothesis that different damage levels observed in a declining (D) and non-declining (ND) Q. ilex stands are connected to population features linked to distinct response to drought. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of two major drought events (2012 and 2017), that occurred in the last fifteen years in central Italy, on Q. ilex growth and intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi). Overall, Q. ilex showed slightly different ring-width patterns between the two stands, suggesting a lower responsiveness to seasonal climatic variations for trees at D stand, while Q. ilex at ND stand showed changes in the relationship between climatic parameters and growth across time. The strong divergence in δ13C signals between the two stands suggested a more conservative use of water for Q. ilex at ND compared to D stand that may be genetically driven. Q. ilex at ND resulted more resilient to drought compared to trees at D, probably thanks to its safer water strategy. Genotyping analysis based on simple-sequence repeat (SSR) markers revealed the presence of different Q. ilex populations at D and ND stands. Our study shows intraspecific variations in drought response among trees grown in close. In addition, it highlights the potential of combining tree-ring δ13C data with SSR genotyping for the selection of seed-bearing genotypes aimed to preserve Mediterranean holm oak ecosystem and improve its forest management.

How Modelers Model: the Overlooked Social and Human Dimensions in Model Intercomparison Studies.

There is a growing realization that the complexity of model ensemble studies depends not only on the models used but also on the experience and approach used by modelers to calibrate and validate results, which remain a source of uncertainty. Here, we applied a multi-criteria decision-making method to investigate the rationale applied by modelers in a model ensemble study where 12 process-based different biogeochemical model types were compared across five successive calibration stages. The modelers shared a common level of agreement about the importance of the variables used to initialize their models for calibration. However, we found inconsistency among modelers when judging the importance of input variables across different calibration stages. The level of subjective weighting attributed by modelers to calibration data decreased sequentially as the extent and number of variables provided increased. In this context, the perceived importance attributed to variables such as the fertilization rate, irrigation regime, soil texture, pH, and initial levels of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks was statistically different when classified according to model types. The importance attributed to input variables such as experimental duration, gross primary production, and net ecosystem exchange varied significantly according to the length of the modeler's experience. We argue that the gradual access to input data across the five calibration stages negatively influenced the consistency of the interpretations made by the modelers, with cognitive bias in "trial-and-error" calibration routines. Our study highlights that overlooking human and social attributes is critical in the outcomes of modeling and model intercomparison studies. While complexity of the processes captured in the model algorithms and parameterization is important, we contend that (1) the modeler's assumptions on the extent to which parameters should be altered and (2) modeler perceptions of the importance of model parameters are just as critical in obtaining a quality model calibration as numerical or analytical details.

Terpene Profiles Composition and Micromorphological Analysis on Two Wild Populations of Helichrysum spp. from the Tuscan Archipelago (Central Italy).

Two wild populations of Helichrysum (Mill.) located at Elba Island (Tuscan Archipelago, Central Italy) were morphologically and phytochemically analyzed to taxonomically identify H. litoreum (population A) and H. italicum subsp. italicum (population B). Micromorphological and histochemical analyses were performed on the indumentum using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and Light Microscope (LM). Morphometric analyses on vegetative and reproductive traits were also conducted. Finally, a chemotaxonomic analysis was carried out on the terpene profile of flowers, leaves and bark tissues using gas chromatography (GC-MS). Results suggested that morphological discriminant traits were mainly in leaves and cypselae glandular tissues. Phytochemical analysis indicated that a high relative content of α-pinene and ß-caryophyllene were the main markers for population A, while a high relative content of neryl-acetate, α-curcumene, isoitalicene and italicene, especially in the terpene profile of bark tissue, were the main compounds for discriminating population B. The analysis suggested that the wild population A could be mainly ascribed to H. litoreum, whilst population B is defined by H. italicum.

Unveiling the changes in urban atmospheric CO2 in the time of COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of Florence (Italy).

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by global mobility restrictions and slowdown in manufacturing activities. Accordingly, cities experienced a significant decrease of CO2 emissions. In this study, continuous measurements of CO2 fluxes, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and δ13C-CO2 values were performed in the historical center of Florence (Italy) before, during and after the almost two-month long national lockdown. The temporal trends of the analyzed parameters, combined with the variations in emitting source categories (from inventory data), evidenced a fast response of flux measurements to variations in the strength of the emitting sources. Similarly, the δ13C-CO2 values recorded the change in the prevailing sources contributing to urban atmospheric CO2, confirming the effectiveness of carbon isotopic data as geochemical tracers for identifying and quantifying the relative contributions of emitting sources. Although the direct impact of restriction measurements on CO2 concentrations was less clear due to seasonal trends and background fluctuations, an in-depth analysis of the daily local CO2 enhancement with respect to the background values revealed a progressive decrease throughout the lockdown phase at the end of the heating season (>10 ppm), followed by a net increase (ca. 5 ppm) with the resumption of traffic. Finally, the investigation of the shape of the frequency distribution of the analyzed variables revealed interesting aspects concerning the dynamics of the systems.

Ensemble modelling, uncertainty and robust predictions of organic carbon in long-term bare-fallow soils.

Simulation models represent soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon (C) cycle scenarios to support climate-change studies. It is imperative to increase confidence in long-term predictions of SOC dynamics by reducing the uncertainty in model estimates. We evaluated SOC simulated from an ensemble of 26 process-based C models by comparing simulations to experimental data from seven long-term bare-fallow (vegetation-free) plots at six sites: Denmark (two sites), France, Russia, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The decay of SOC in these plots has been monitored for decades since the last inputs of plant material, providing the opportunity to test decomposition without the continuous input of new organic material. The models were run independently over multi-year simulation periods (from 28 to 80 years) in a blind test with no calibration (Bln) and with the following three calibration scenarios, each providing different levels of information and/or allowing different levels of model fitting: (a) calibrating decomposition parameters separately at each experimental site (Spe); (b) using a generic, knowledge-based, parameterization applicable in the Central European region (Gen); and (c) using a combination of both (a) and (b) strategies (Mix). We addressed uncertainties from different modelling approaches with or without spin-up initialization of SOC. Changes in the multi-model median (MMM) of SOC were used as descriptors of the ensemble performance. On average across sites, Gen proved adequate in describing changes in SOC, with MMM equal to average SOC (and standard deviation) of 39.2 (±15.5) Mg C/ha compared to the observed mean of 36.0 (±19.7) Mg C/ha (last observed year), indicating sufficiently reliable SOC estimates. Moving to Mix (37.5 ± 16.7 Mg C/ha) and Spe (36.8 ± 19.8 Mg C/ha) provided only marginal gains in accuracy, but modellers would need to apply more knowledge and a greater calibration effort than in Gen, thereby limiting the wider applicability of models.

Quantifying road traffic impact on air quality in urban areas: A Covid19-induced lockdown analysis in Italy.

Covid19-induced lockdown measures caused modifications in atmospheric pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban road traffic was the most impacted, with 48-60% average reduction in Italy. This offered an unprecedented opportunity to assess how a prolonged (∼2 months) and remarkable abatement of traffic emissions impacted on urban air quality. Six out of the eight most populated cities in Italy with different climatic conditions were analysed: Milan, Bologna, Florence, Rome, Naples, and Palermo. The selected scenario (24/02/2020-30/04/2020) was compared to a meteorologically comparable scenario in 2019 (25/02/2019-02/05/2019). NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10 observations from 58 air quality and meteorological stations were used, while traffic mobility was derived from municipality-scale big data. NO2 levels remarkably dropped over all urban areas (from -24.9% in Milan to -59.1% in Naples), to an extent roughly proportional but lower than traffic reduction. Conversely, O3 concentrations remained unchanged or even increased (up to 13.7% in Palermo and 14.7% in Rome), likely because of the reduced O3 titration triggered by lower NO emissions from vehicles, and lower NOx emissions over typical VOCs-limited environments such as urban areas, not compensated by comparable VOCs emissions reductions. PM10 exhibited reductions up to 31.5% (Palermo) and increases up to 7.3% (Naples), while PM2.5 showed reductions of ∼13-17% counterbalanced by increases up to ∼9%. Higher household heating usage (+16-19% in March), also driven by colder weather conditions than 2019 (-0.2 to -0.8 °C) may partly explain primary PM emissions increase, while an increase in agriculture activities may account for the NH3 emissions increase leading to secondary aerosol formation. This study confirmed the complex nature of atmospheric pollution even when a major emission source is clearly isolated and controlled, and the need for consistent decarbonisation efforts across all emission sectors to really improve air quality and public health.

Long-Term Performance Assessment of Low-Cost Atmospheric Sensors in the Arctic Environment.

The Arctic is an important natural laboratory that is extremely sensitive to climatic changes and its monitoring is, therefore, of great importance. Due to the environmental extremes it is often hard to deploy sensors and observations are limited to a few sparse observation points limiting the spatial and temporal coverage of the Arctic measurement. Given these constraints the possibility of deploying a rugged network of low-cost sensors remains an interesting and convenient option. The present work validates for the first time a low-cost sensor array (AIRQino) for monitoring basic meteorological parameters and atmospheric composition in the Arctic (air temperature, relative humidity, particulate matter, and CO2). AIRQino was deployed for one year in the Svalbard archipelago and its outputs compared with reference sensors. Results show good agreement with the reference meteorological parameters (air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH)) with correlation coefficients above 0.8 and small absolute errors (≈1 °C for temperature and ≈6% for RH). Particulate matter (PM) low-cost sensors show a good linearity (r2 ≈ 0.8) and small absolute errors for both PM2.5 and PM10 (≈1 µg m-3 for PM2.5 and ≈3 µg m-3 for PM10), while overall accuracy is impacted both by the unknown composition of the local aerosol, and by high humidity conditions likely generating hygroscopic effects. CO2 exhibits a satisfying agreement with r2 around 0.70 and an absolute error of ≈23 mg m-3. Overall these results, coupled with an excellent data coverage and scarce need of maintenance make the AIRQino or similar devices integrations an interesting tool for future extended sensor networks also in the Arctic environment.

The use of biogeochemical models to evaluate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from managed grasslands.

Simulation models quantify the impacts on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in grassland systems caused by changes in management practices. To support agricultural policies, it is however important to contrast the responses of alternative models, which can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and in their response to management. We applied eight biogeochemical models at five grassland sites (in France, New Zealand, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States) to compare the sensitivity of modelled C and N fluxes to changes in the density of grazing animals (from 100% to 50% of the original livestock densities), also in combination with decreasing N fertilization levels (reduced to zero from the initial levels). Simulated multi-model median values indicated that input reduction would lead to an increase in the C sink strength (negative net ecosystem C exchange) in intensive grazing systems: -64 ±â€¯74 g C m-2 yr-1 (animal density reduction) and -81 ±â€¯74 g C m-2 yr-1 (N and animal density reduction), against the baseline of -30.5 ±â€¯69.5 g C m-2 yr-1 (LSU [livestock units] ≥ 0.76 ha-1 yr-1). Simulations also indicated a strong effect of N fertilizer reduction on N fluxes, e.g. N2O-N emissions decreased from 0.34 ±â€¯0.22 (baseline) to 0.1 ±â€¯0.05 g N m-2 yr-1 (no N fertilization). Simulated decline in grazing intensity had only limited impact on the N balance. The simulated pattern of enteric methane emissions was dominated by high model-to-model variability. The reduction in simulated offtake (animal intake + cut biomass) led to a doubling in net primary production per animal (increased by 11.6 ±â€¯8.1 t C LSU-1 yr-1 across sites). The highest N2O-N intensities (N2O-N/offtake) were simulated at mown and extensively grazed arid sites. We show the possibility of using grassland models to determine sound mitigation practices while quantifying the uncertainties associated with the simulated outputs.

Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N2 O emissions (N2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2 O emissions at field scale is discussed.

Review and analysis of strengths and weaknesses of agro-ecosystem models for simulating C and N fluxes.

Biogeochemical simulation models are important tools for describing and quantifying the contribution of agricultural systems to C sequestration and GHG source/sink status. The abundance of simulation tools developed over recent decades, however, creates a difficulty because predictions from different models show large variability. Discrepancies between the conclusions of different modelling studies are often ascribed to differences in the physical and biogeochemical processes incorporated in equations of C and N cycles and their interactions. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modelling agricultural (crop and grassland) systems. In order to carry out this study, we selected the range of biogeochemical models used by the CN-MIP consortium of FACCE-JPI (http://www.faccejpi.com): APSIM, CERES-EGC, DayCent, DNDC, DSSAT, EPIC, PaSim, RothC and STICS. In our analysis, these models were assessed for the quality and comprehensiveness of underlying processes related to pedo-climatic conditions and management practices, but also with respect to time and space of application, and for their accuracy in multiple contexts. Overall, it emerged that there is a possible impact of ill-defined pedo-climatic conditions in the unsatisfactory performance of the models (46.2%), followed by limitations in the algorithms simulating the effects of management practices (33.1%). The multiplicity of scales in both time and space is a fundamental feature, which explains the remaining weaknesses (i.e. 20.7%). Innovative aspects have been identified for future development of C and N models. They include the explicit representation of soil microbial biomass to drive soil organic matter turnover, the effect of N shortage on SOM decomposition, the improvements related to the production and consumption of gases and an adequate simulations of gas transport in soil. On these bases, the assessment of trends and gaps in the modelling approaches currently employed to represent biogeochemical cycles in crop and grassland systems appears an essential step for future research.